Commanders stats vs. 49ers: Time to keep on losing
It’s one of the least consequential late-season Washington Commanders games in years. It’s on New Year’s Eve. There’s no young, exciting quarterback to watch, such as Sam Howell in the 2022 finale, and there’s little chance of an upset spoiling draft position, such as last week against the New York Jets. The San Francisco 49ers have one of the league’s best rosters, including several jilted former members of Washington’s organization, and are favored by 14 points.
Washington, which benched Howell for veteran journeyman Jacoby Brissett, can gain little in the long term beyond the individual development of non-quarterbacks and a loss that would help it maintain a high draft pick.
But my editor says I have to keep giving my fellow football sickos stats to know. So here we go.
.518 opponent winning percentage
Washington holds the No. 3 pick over New England even though it has the same record (4-11) and beat the Patriots this season. That’s because the first tiebreaker for draft order is strength of schedule, calculated by average opponent winning percentage. Washington’s strength of schedule is .518, and New England’s is .522.
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Strength of schedule is a critical number to watch for draft order over the next two weeks, though it’s hard to predict where it will end up. But Washington’s last two opponents (San Francisco and Dallas) are tougher than New England’s (Buffalo and the Jets).
2.5 sacks in San Francisco
Chase Young returns to Washington for the first time since he was traded to San Francisco in November. The former No. 2 pick has been a rotational edge rusher for the 49ers, playing 54 percent of the snaps and generating a very good pressure rate of 13.3 percent. But he hasn’t made many splash plays: 2.5 sacks, one batted pass and one tackle for loss.
Young told 49ers reporters this will be just another game for him. But star edge rusher Nick Bosa, who also mentored Young at Ohio State, had a different view.
“This week is a huge one for him,” Bosa told reporters. “He’s already pretty hyped up about it and excited, so we’re going to try to play our best game for him.”
32 percent
There are a lot of ways to illustrate the 49ers’ offensive greatness. Coach Kyle Shanahan, one of the best play callers in the league, consistently schemes up explosive plays for quarterback Brock Purdy and his superhero-stuffed supporting cast. But one cool way is to point out that defenses often stuff the tackle box: Running back Christian McCaffrey has faced eight-man boxes on 36 percent of his rushes, and the 49ers’ offense has faced them on 32 percent of snaps overall. Both of those are the highest rates in the NFL.
But the thing is, it doesn’t matter. Even in those situations, the 49ers have remained efficient, successful and explosive. Don’t expect Shanahan to go easy on his old team.
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